Buy Jindal Stainless: target of Rs 835: ICICI Securities

What happened

ICICI Securities maintained a BUY rating on Jindal Stainless with a target price of Rs 835. Jindal Stainless reported Q2FY27 consolidated EBITDA of INR 14.3bn, up 3% year on year, as sales volumes recovered after Q1 operational disruptions.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Higher profit per tonne means each sale earns more, which can lift total profit even when volume growth slows. That supports the analyst's view of rising earnings per share and the Rs 835 target price.

Analyst inference

Volume growth guidance was cut to 4–6% from 7–9% because of Q1 disruptions, while the longer-term FY29 guidance stays intact. The Indonesia facility and downstream projects are the planned drivers of that future capacity.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Management raised FY27 EBITDA per tonne guidance to INR 20,000–22,000 from INR 18,000–20,000 earlier, while cutting volume growth guidance to 4–6% from 7–9%. Confirmed
2. The company plans to reach its FY29 volume guidance, supported by its Indonesia 1.2mtpa SMS facility, which means a steel-making plant, and by ramping up downstream expansion projects. Proposed
3. Watch whether the nickel project starts contributing and whether higher profit per tonne offsets slower volumes, since ICICI's Rs 835 target assumes 17x estimated profit for the year after next. Analyst inference

Evidence

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