Tesla's upside goes beyond SpaceX merger -- Barclays

What happened

Barclays upgraded Tesla to Overweight from Equal Weight. Analyst Dan Levy said the potential SpaceX combination could lift the share price, but Tesla's own business prospects add further upside, including expected growth this year after two years of declines.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

An upgrade can change how investors view the stock, because it signals a broker expects better returns. Levy points to Tesla's core car business recovering, plus energy storage and robotaxi progress, which could support revenue and profit even without a SpaceX deal.

Analyst inference

Tesla is positioned as both a carmaker and an energy and robotaxi company. Its energy business is nearly sold out for 2027 on data center demand, and storage profit per sale rose, which means investors may value these segments separately from vehicle sales.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Tesla reported 13.7 gigawatts of energy storage deployments, its second-best quarter, and energy gross margins improved to 33.1% from 20.4%, which means profit per sale rose. Confirmed
2. Barclays' Dan Levy predicts more than 50% growth in energy shipments, a forecast rather than a reported result, so investors should compare later shipment figures against this target. Proposed
3. Watch whether Tesla's core car business actually grows this year after two years of declines, and whether robotaxi progress continues, since these underpin the upgrade case beyond any SpaceX deal. Analyst inference

Evidence

• seekingalpha.com