Circle faces up to 20% revenue risk from AI agents, Mizuho says

What happened

Mizuho cut Circle's price target to $43 from $45 and kept an Underperform rating. It estimated wider AI agent adoption could shrink USDC's market value by $4 billion to $9 billion and create a 10-20% medium-term risk to Circle's reserve revenue. Circle shares closed down 7% at $79.84 on Monday.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Circle earns reserve revenue from the cash and safe assets backing USDC, so if AI assistants move holders toward higher-yielding bank savings accounts or competing platforms, Circle's revenue base could shrink. That risk matters because it links a technology shift directly to Circle's profit and stock valuation.

Analyst inference

Mizuho's $43 target implies 46% downside from the $79.84 close, and the 7% share drop shows investors already reacting to this risk. The report also notes only about 17% of USDC sits on Circle's platform where holders earn no yield, highlighting competition for customer balances.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Mizuho cited a 10-20% medium-term downside risk to Circle's reserve revenue if AI agents steer USDC holders toward higher-yielding fiat alternatives or other platforms. Confirmed
2. Watch whether Circle introduces yield-bearing features or partnerships to keep USDC holders on its platform, since Mizuho expects agents to prefer alternatives like SoFi savings accounts. Proposed
3. Track USDC's market value and the share held on Circle's platform; a decline toward the $4 billion to $9 billion estimate would signal the revenue risk is materializing. Analyst inference

Affected assets

• USDC — USD Coin

Evidence

• theblock.co