Auto stocks: Nomura sees October growth led by EVs, SUVs and scooters; M&M, Ather and TVS outperform

What happened

Nomura expects India’s automobile industry to grow across most segments in October, led by electric vehicles, SUVs and scooters. It estimates year-on-year volume growth of 7% for passenger vehicles, 12% for two-wheelers and 25% for medium and heavy commercial vehicles, while tractor volumes are expected to fall 7%.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

If the forecasts hold, higher vehicle volumes could support automakers’ revenue, especially in electric vehicles, SUVs and scooters. But the expected tractor decline points to uneven demand, and the early registration figures are not a full-season measure, limiting how confidently investors can read them.

Analyst inference

Nomura’s outlook combines strong festive-period dealer surveys with mixed early registrations: two-wheelers rose 9% year on year in the first 18 days of Navratri, while passenger vehicles fell 8%. The brokerage says comparisons are affected by a high 2025 base and delayed registrations.

Confirmed

What to watch

1. Check whether full-month October sales match Nomura’s estimates: 7% growth for passenger vehicles, 12% for two-wheelers and 25% for commercial vehicles, with tractors down 7%. Analyst inference
2. Watch whether demand remains concentrated in electric vehicles, large SUVs and scooters, while hatchbacks and motorcycles outside the stronger 150cc category continue to lag. Analyst inference
3. Look for later registration data to clarify the early readings, since the first 18 days of Navratri may miss sales registered after a delay. Confirmed

Evidence

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