AMD Stock Has Outrun Nvidia 5X Since 2024. But There's a Valuation Catch

What happened

AMD has returned roughly five times as much as Nvidia since July 2024, but its shares now trade at higher valuations relative to earnings and revenue. Analyst Beth Kindig says AMD’s Venice CPU revenue could more than double in 2027, GPU revenue could grow significantly more than 100%, and companywide revenue could rise more than 80% next year.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

The growth case rests on two sources of demand: CPUs, which handle general computing tasks, and GPUs, which support AI computing. If both grow as forecast, AMD could gain revenue from expanding AI infrastructure spending without taking substantial GPU market share from Nvidia, though higher valuation raises the stakes for delivery.

Analyst inference

AMD’s stronger stock performance has not made it cheaper on the measures described: investors pay more for each unit of its earnings and revenue than for Nvidia’s. That gap may leave AMD more exposed to disappointment if its projected CPU and GPU growth does not materialize.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Check whether AMD’s next company outlook supports revenue growth above 80% next year, the forecast cited in the article, and whether management explains the main growth drivers. Analyst inference
2. Watch for updates to the forecast that Venice CPU revenue will more than double in 2027; weaker demand or a lower outlook would challenge the second growth engine. Analyst inference
3. Track whether AMD’s GPU revenue outlook remains for growth significantly above 100% over the same period, since this helps underpin the companywide forecast. Analyst inference

Evidence

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