Baird downgrades Nvidia on China curbs, AI demand worries

What happened

Baird downgraded Nvidia to Neutral from Buy and cut its price target by 60%, to $200 from $500, citing US restrictions on chip sales to China and a possible slowdown in AI spending. It said export limits could hurt revenue and that some advance H300 orders face potential cuts.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

The concern links Nvidia’s sales to two sources of uncertainty: access to China and Southeast Asian buyers, and spending by large data-center customers. If restrictions or weaker AI budgets reduce orders, Nvidia could sell fewer chips, while supply constraints and order timing add uncertainty to expected revenue.

Analyst inference

Baird’s downgrade joins a broader reassessment of Nvidia in the article: Morgan Stanley removed it from a top-pick list after a decline of more than 25% since its selection, and BofA also removed it from a list. These are analyst actions, not proof of future results.

Confirmed

What to watch

1. Watch for US decisions on chip exports to China: the article says restrictions, including pre-emptive limits, could affect Nvidia’s sales to China and Southeast Asian data-center operators. Analyst inference
2. Track signs of AI spending growth: Baird said large AI data-center buyers’ capital spending growth could slow to about 40% year-on-year in 2027 amid supply limits and softer demand. Confirmed
3. Follow whether advance H300 orders are cut or delayed; Baird said 10–30% could face cuts because of timing risks, despite demand currently exceeding supply. Confirmed

Evidence

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