Alnylam downgraded at Bernstein on TRITON-CM trial design

What happened

Bernstein proposed downgrading Alnylam Pharmaceuticals to Market Perform from Outperform, citing concerns over the proposed design of its TRITON-CM Phase 3 trial for nucresiran, which is subject to approval and not yet final. Analyst Jeffrey Walch cut his per-share target to $199 from $376.

Proposed

Global impact / market context

The proposed downgrade and lower target reflect reduced confidence in nucresiran's trial success, which matters because a failed late-stage study could erase a key future revenue source. Lower success estimates and sales projections directly reduce the expected value investors assign to Alnylam shares.

Analyst inference

The stock had already sold off sharply after Alnylam reiterated its 2026 revenue outlook alongside third-quarter results. The analyst also referenced a late-stage setback for Wainua, another ATTR-CM therapy, which may make investors more cautious about similar trial designs in this rare heart condition.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Alnylam has decided not to incorporate the changes Bernstein proposes to the TRITON-CM trial, which tests nucresiran in patients with the rare heart condition ATTR-CM. Confirmed
2. Bernstein proposes changes to the TRITON-CM trial design, arguing they account for the recent late-stage setback for Wainua, an RNA-targeting therapy for ATTR-CM. Proposed
3. Investors may focus on whether Alnylam's trial design still supports a favorable probability of success, given Bernstein's lowered estimates for nucresiran and reduced sales projections. Analyst inference

Evidence

• seekingalpha.com