Tesla-SpaceX Merger Stands at 80%-90% Chance, Dan Ives' $500 Price Tag Explains Why

What happened

Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives & Co. put the odds of a Tesla-SpaceX deal by the end of 2027 at 80% to 90%. He values Tesla at more than $500 a share in a combination, with about $335 from autonomy and Optimus.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Ives splits Tesla's value, putting $165 a share on the vehicle business and $335 on autonomy and Optimus. He argues a deal below $500 a share would hand SpaceX some of Tesla's future upside at a discount, which is why Tesla shareholders might resist such terms.

Analyst inference

Tesla already holds a $2 billion stake in SpaceX, according to Ives' note. He sees room for the two companies to work together on software, chip design, robotics, connectivity and Terafab, a planned AI-chip manufacturing project, which could affect capital spending and costs.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Ives puts the chance of a deal by the end of 2027 at 80% to 90%, so watch whether any formal transaction terms emerge before that date. Confirmed
2. Watch whether Tesla shareholders push back on any valuation below $500 a share, since Ives says a lower price would transfer future upside to SpaceX at a discount. Proposed
3. Watch progress on Terafab and joint chip, software and robotics work, since these tie into the autonomy and Optimus value Ives counts in his $500 target. Analyst inference

Evidence

• Original source link unavailable