Dan Ives Says Microsoft Amazon and Meta Win Big as Data Center Slowdown Looms

What happened

Yorkville Ives analyst Dan Ives said a possible slowdown in U.S. data center construction could benefit cloud providers that already have operating capacity. Under a “Blue Wave” scenario, he estimated 10% to 30% of planned U.S. data centers may not be built over the next 18 months, while naming Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and sometimes Oracle as potential beneficiaries.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

If fewer new data centers are built, companies with existing facilities, computing chips and available power could serve more AI demand without waiting for new construction. That may shift business toward established cloud providers, while reducing construction spending and the need for companies to raise money for projects.

Analyst inference

The analyst’s estimate describes a possible slowdown, not a confirmed change in construction. His note still expects total data center capital spending of $3 trillion to $4 trillion over the next few years and Big Tech spending above $1 trillion next year, suggesting expansion could continue at a slower pace.

Confirmed

What to watch

1. Watch whether planned U.S. data center projects are delayed or canceled over the next 18 months; the article presents the 10% to 30% estimate as conditional. Analyst inference
2. Track whether cloud providers report usable computing capacity, including power and GPUs, and whether that capacity attracts more AI customers or revenue. Analyst inference
3. Watch political decisions on data center development and whether they alter construction plans; the analyst cited election results and Texas Governor Gina Hinojosa’s approach. Confirmed

Evidence

• gurufocus.com