Chipotle brings back smoked brisket for a limited time after a two-year pause

What happened

Chipotle Mexican Grill is bringing back Smoked Brisket to U.S. and Canadian restaurants for a limited time starting November 5, and it is waiving delivery fees on brisket orders made through its app or online from November 5 through November 18.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Chipotle needs a sales boost after comparable restaurant sales growth, which means sales at stores open a year or more, was just 0.5% in the first quarter and 2.2% in the second quarter. A returning popular item plus waived delivery fees could lift transactions and check sizes.

Analyst inference

Smoked brisket returned in September 2024 and helped drive a 4% rise in transactions plus bigger checks that quarter. Chipotle reports third-quarter results on October 28, and its shares were up 3.1% in early afternoon trading, suggesting investors are focused on sales trends.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Chipotle is due to report third-quarter results on October 28, which will show whether comparable restaurant sales, meaning sales at stores open a year or more, have improved from the 0.5% and 2.2% growth seen in the first two quarters. Confirmed
2. Watch whether the limited-time brisket launch and waived delivery fees from November 5 through November 18 lift app and online orders, and whether that carries into fourth-quarter transaction growth similar to the 4% rise seen after the September 2024 return. Proposed
3. Watch beef costs and supply, since Chipotle says only about 5% of U.S. beef meets its standards, which require a vegetarian diet, no added growth hormones or routine antibiotics, and tracing to the ranch. Analyst inference

Evidence

• seekingalpha.com