AI shopping agents could threaten Amazon and Walmart's ad business

What happened

AI shopping agents that research and buy products for consumers could threaten retailers’ advertising revenue and customer data. Amazon has blocked Meta’s Muse agent, while Walmart is partnering with it. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said third-party agents have not meaningfully affected its ads so far.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Retailers earn advertising revenue when brands pay to promote products on their sites and apps. If shoppers increasingly use agents to select and buy products without visiting those storefronts, retailers could lose ad placements and customer data, weakening a profitable revenue stream.

Analyst inference

Amazon and Walmart together hold a projected 88% of US retail media spending, a market estimated at $74.4 billion. Morgan Stanley researchers said agents could handle 10% to 20% of US online shopping spending by 2030, while Amazon’s ad growth slowed.

Confirmed

What to watch

1. Watch whether Amazon reports any measurable effect from third-party agents on advertising revenue; its CEO has said there is no meaningful effect so far. Analyst inference
2. Watch how Walmart’s partnership with Meta’s Muse develops, especially whether the agent sends shoppers to Walmart’s site and preserves product promotion opportunities. Analyst inference
3. Watch future Amazon advertising growth: it rose 11% year over year in the third quarter, its slowest growth pace in nearly four years. Confirmed

Evidence

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