US jobs data revised lower after Fed rate hike

What happened

In September, 16 of 18 Fed members expected to raise interest rates again this year, even as the payrolls data they cited shrank by one third.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

This matters because weaker jobs data can change how investors judge future Fed rate decisions, which affects borrowing costs, company profits, and stock and bond prices.

Analyst inference

The context is a split between the Fed's September rate-hike expectation and later revised-down payrolls, which means job growth was weaker than the data members used.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Watch whether the Fed raises interest rates again this year, since 16 of 18 members expected that in September. Confirmed
2. Watch whether weaker payrolls data cause investors to expect lower rates, which would affect borrowing costs and asset prices. Analyst inference
3. Watch whether the Fed updates its rate plan if payrolls revisions continue lower, since that would change its stated path. Proposed

Evidence

• protos.com