Binance.US to challenge Kalshi and Polymarket with new prediction market push

What happened

Binance.US said it will apply for a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) designated‑contract license so it can launch its own prediction‑market platform and compete with current licensed operators Kalshi and Polymarket.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

If Binance.US obtains the license, its large user base could add significant trading volume and depth (liquidity, meaning the ability to buy or sell without large price moves) to prediction markets, which may attract more participants and increase overall market activity.

Analyst inference

Prediction markets in the U.S. are overseen by the CFTC, and only a few platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket currently hold the required licenses, limiting competition and keeping the market relatively small.

Confirmed

What to watch

1. Whether the CFTC grants Binance.US a designated‑contract license, which would legally permit the company to offer prediction‑market products to U.S. users. Proposed
2. How existing licensed platforms respond, for example by changing fees or adding new products, to protect their market share against a new entrant with a large customer base. Analyst inference
3. Any additional regulatory guidance or enforcement actions the CFTC issues for the broader crypto sector as a result of Binance.US’s licensing request. Analyst inference

Evidence

• cryptopolitan.com