🇺🇸 UPDATE: Another rates hike this month is unlikely according to the CME Group as they set a 77.9% chance that rates remain unchanged.

What happened

The CME Group set a 77.9% chance that interest rates remain unchanged this month, according to an update. This suggests another rate hike this month is unlikely.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

If borrowed money stays at current rates, companies face unchanged interest costs on existing loans and new borrowing. That can support capital spending and cash available, while savers and income investors see no immediate increase in yields.

Analyst inference

Rate expectations shape investor positioning across stocks and bonds. A higher chance of unchanged rates can reduce pressure on company profits and make dividend-paying shares relatively more attractive than newly issued higher-yield bonds.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. The CME Group's 77.9% probability reading itself is the key number to watch for any change this month. Confirmed
2. Watch whether CME Group's 77.9% chance that rates remain unchanged moves up or down in its next update. Proposed
3. Track upcoming inflation and jobs reports, because stronger data could raise rate hike odds and pressure company borrowing costs. Analyst inference

Evidence

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