BofA sees memory chip supercycle extending through 2028

What happened

Bank of America said memory-chip prices and industry revenue could remain strong through 2028, while giving more cautious forecasts than TrendForce. BofA expects fourth-quarter 2026 DRAM prices to rise 8% from the prior quarter and NAND prices 3%, and forecasts industry revenue of $970 billion in 2026, $1.47 trillion in 2027, and $1.58 trillion in 2028.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

If memory prices stay high, chipmakers could earn more revenue and profit per sale, while buyers of memory chips may face higher costs. BofA’s lower price forecasts suggest the outlook is uncertain, so actual results depend on demand, supply, and the timing of any price corrections.

Analyst inference

The article presents two different views: TrendForce expects much larger price increases, including HBM prices more than doubling in 2027, while BofA expects HBM increases below 50%. BofA still sees industry revenue rising through 2028, despite possible earlier price corrections.

Confirmed

What to watch

1. Compare reported fourth-quarter 2026 DRAM and NAND price changes with BofA’s forecasts of 8% and 3%; weaker increases could reduce the projected revenue path. Analyst inference
2. Watch whether HBM prices in 2027 rise below 50%, as BofA expects, or more than double, as TrendForce forecasts; the gap would alter expected chipmaker revenue. Analyst inference
3. Track whether long-term supply agreements emerge and reduce price volatility beyond 2028, as TrendForce expects; the article does not establish that such agreements are in place. Proposed

Evidence

• seekingalpha.com