AIRO Group offers upside as military drone demand accelerates: Roth Capital

What happened

Roth Capital Partners initiated coverage of AIRO Group Holdings with a Buy rating and a $16 price target, citing military-drone demand, production expansion and potential revenue growth. It forecasts revenue rising from about $134 million in 2026 to $250 million in 2028, while adjusted EBITDA, a measure of operating earnings, turns positive in 2028.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Roth’s forecast links AIRO’s growth to delivering more drones and expanding into autonomous aircraft, so production capacity and customer orders will determine whether revenue reaches the projected levels. Production delays or supply shortages could raise costs, postpone sales and prolong losses before the forecast positive operating earnings.

Analyst inference

The coverage combines a favorable Buy rating and target with forecasts that AIRO remains loss-making through 2027, then earns positive adjusted EBITDA in 2028. For investors, that makes the case dependent on execution: expected demand must translate into deliveries and revenue before cash needs and delays weigh on results.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Track whether AIRO expands production and delivers drones as planned; delays could push expected sales into later periods and extend the company’s forecast losses. Analyst inference
2. Watch progress on the RQ-35 NATO procurement agreement and the planned RQ-70 launch, since wider purchasing and successful introduction could support drone sales growth. Analyst inference
3. Compare reported revenue and adjusted EBITDA with Roth’s forecasts: about $134 million and a $12.1 million loss in 2026, then positive EBITDA in 2028. Analyst inference

Evidence

• seekingalpha.com