Mosaic Q3 adjusted loss misses estimates as lower volumes, raw material costs cut EBITDA

What happened

Mosaic reported a Q3 adjusted loss per share of $0.19, missing estimates of $0.02, with revenue of $3.1 bln. Net loss was $72 mln versus $411 mln net income a year earlier, and adjusted EBITDA fell to $324 mln from $806 mln.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Lower sales volumes across all segments and higher raw material costs, especially limited affordable sulfur for phosphate production, squeezed profit. This means less cash generated from operations, which can constrain Mosaic's ability to fund its planned $1.2 bln of 2026 capital spending.

Analyst inference

Mosaic's phosphate curtailments and weaker Fertilizantes volumes show fertilizer demand and input availability are pressuring results. The company expects phosphate adjusted EBITDA to decline further, suggesting earnings headwinds continue into coming quarters rather than easing after this report.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Mosaic expects Q4 phosphate sales volumes of 1.3 to 1.6 mln tonnes and DAP plant prices averaging $820 to $840 per tonne, with phosphate adjusted EBITDA expected to decline further. Confirmed
2. Mosaic expects 2026 capital expenditures of $1.2 bln and 2026 potash production of 8.6 mln tonnes following lower ore grades at Esterhazy. Confirmed
3. Watch whether sulfur availability improves enough to restore phosphate production, since curtailments tied to limited affordable sulfur reduced volumes and directly cut adjusted EBITDA this quarter. Analyst inference

Evidence

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