Chocolate makers get Halloween fright as health-conscious US shoppers cut back

What happened

US Halloween chocolate sales fell by $33.1 million in the nine weeks ending October 17 compared with a year earlier, NIQ data showed, the biggest drop in at least three years, led entirely by milk chocolate. Hershey lowered its organic net sales growth target for this year.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Hershey and Mondelez earn a large share of yearly candy revenue around Halloween, so weaker treat sales can lower revenue and profit per sale in their biggest season. Hershey already cut its sales growth target, which means its full-year results depend more on shoppers showing up in the final days.

Analyst inference

Shoppers are spending less on Halloween candy as cost-of-living pressures bite and health-conscious buyers pick low-sugar options and snacks beyond traditional candy. US consumer sentiment has edged down to a near record low before the midterm congressional elections, and soaring cocoa prices had already forced confectionery makers to raise prices, which means shoppers now pay more per bar.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Hershey CEO Kirk Tanner said the company needed consumers to show up in the critical last few days before Halloween on Saturday, after Hershey lowered its organic net sales growth target for this year. Confirmed
2. Watch whether Hershey and Mondelez adjust prices or product ranges toward low-sugar and non-candy snacks, a move that would protect revenue if health-conscious shoppers keep shifting away from milk chocolate. Proposed
3. Watch final Halloween sell-through and any updates to Hershey's and Mondelez's sales targets. Weak treat demand plus high cocoa costs would squeeze profit per sale, which means earnings could fall even if prices stay high. Analyst inference

Evidence

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