Bernstein Predicts $10 Trillion Prediction Market by 2035—10X Its Original Forecast

What happened

Bernstein now projects prediction markets will handle $10 trillion a year by 2035, up from its own $1 trillion by 2030 forecast made just five months ago.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

If prediction markets grow this large, more money could flow into bets on real-world events. That may pull investor attention and trading fees away from stocks, sportsbooks, and other venues, changing where people place and price risk.

Analyst inference

This is only a forecast, not actual trading volume, and it comes from one firm raising its own estimate quickly. The revision suggests prediction markets are gaining attention, but the projected growth depends on rules, demand, and platform adoption that are not yet confirmed.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Bernstein's original forecast was $1 trillion a year by 2030, made just five months before the new $10 trillion by 2035 projection. Confirmed
2. Watch whether prediction market platforms report rising trading volume, which means the total value of bets placed, to see if Bernstein's projection gains support. Proposed
3. Watch whether regulators allow broader event-based betting, since tighter rules could limit how much money flows into prediction markets and slow the forecasted growth. Analyst inference

Evidence

• decrypt.co