Xiaomi's 3Q Smartphone Revenue Likely Strengthened — Market Talk

What happened

Daiwa analyst John Choi said Xiaomi's smartphone revenue likely strengthened in the third quarter, helped by higher selling prices and steady demand from new model launches. Daiwa forecasts total revenue of 106 billion yuan and raised its target price to HK$35.00 from HK$30.00, keeping a buy rating.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Selling fewer phones at higher prices means revenue can grow even when shipment volumes fall. That shift toward premium models can lift profit per sale, which matters for investors because Daiwa's higher HK$35.00 target price implies more value per share than the last HK$28.64 price.

Analyst inference

The note points to Xiaomi deliberately limiting shipment volumes to focus on higher-end models. For investors, this means revenue quality matters more than unit counts: rising average selling prices can support revenue and profit per sale, while falling volumes test whether demand holds up.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Daiwa forecasts third-quarter total revenue of 106 billion yuan, and its target price rose to HK$35.00 from HK$30.00 with a buy rating, while shares were last at HK$28.64. Confirmed
2. Watch whether Xiaomi's premiumization strategy keeps lifting average selling prices, which means the typical price per phone sold, even as the company controls shipment volumes. Proposed
3. Track actual shipments and revenue when reported: if volumes fall more than prices rise, revenue could miss Daiwa's forecast, weakening the case behind the higher target price. Analyst inference

Evidence

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