LATEST: The American Gaming Association projects US legal NFL wagering will stay flat at $29.5B this season, blaming "backdoor sports betting" on prediction markets for stalling growth.

What happened

The American Gaming Association predicts US legal NFL betting will stay flat at $29.5 billion this season. It says prediction markets, which let people wager on sports outcomes through speculative trading, are acting as backdoor sports betting and slowing growth.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

If prediction markets divert betting away from legal sportsbooks, gambling companies may see slower revenue growth. Regulators might respond by creating new rules, which could affect the earnings and valuation of sports betting and trading platform businesses.

Analyst inference

This flat forecast comes amid growing use of prediction markets, which are platforms where users trade contracts based on event outcomes. If they increasingly compete with regulated sportsbooks, they could reshape gambling industry competition and attract regulatory attention across different states.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Watch whether the American Gaming Association releases an updated projection mid-season, which would confirm if the $29.5 billion flat estimate is holding or needs revision. Confirmed
2. Propose tracking whether any US state introduces legislation to regulate prediction markets as sports betting, since that would directly affect companies operating those trading platforms. Proposed
3. Watch if sportsbook companies report weaker earnings this season compared to last year, which would provide evidence that backdoor betting is indeed taking business away from legal operators. Analyst inference

Evidence

• x.com