LPG under recovery may rise to ₹370/cylinder in December 2026

What happened

Indian Oil Corporation expects its under recovery on liquefied petroleum gas, which means the loss from selling cooking fuel below market rates, to rise to ₹370 per 14.2 kg domestic cylinder in December 2026, up roughly 13 per cent monthly from around ₹309 in November 2026.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Under recovery is money the company spends but does not recover through the selling price, so each cylinder sold at a loss reduces cash available and profit, and higher fuel costs widen that gap for Indian Oil and other state-run fuel retailers.

Analyst inference

Indian Oil's September quarter net profit more than doubled to around ₹22,503 crore as lower crude oil prices and higher refining margins helped offset losses from selling fuel below market rates, while its cumulative under recovery on LPG was ₹32,505.69 crore as of September 30, 2026.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Indian Oil said the Saudi CP, a benchmark price for liquefied petroleum gas, has risen to $756 per tonne, and it reported cumulative under recovery on LPG of ₹32,505.69 crore as of September 30, 2026. Confirmed
2. Watch whether Indian Oil's December 2026 under recovery actually reaches ₹370 per cylinder as its finance director proposed, or stays near the ₹309 per cylinder level he cited for November 2026. Proposed
3. Watch whether the government shares the cost of these under recoveries through subsidies or price changes, because that decides how much of the loss reaches company profits, cash available, and spending plans. Analyst inference

Evidence

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