The races that will decide control of the US Senate

What happened

Democrats need a net gain of at least four seats to take control of the US Senate from Republicans, who hold a 53-47 majority. Voter discontent over the Iran war and rising prices has put once-solidly Republican states into play, and Democrats are now competitive in states Trump won in 2024.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Senate control shapes which laws pass, including taxes, government spending and rules for industries. A shift in power would change what companies can expect from Washington, affecting their planning for capital spending, costs and revenue.

Analyst inference

In Alaska, Peltola has raised $33 million versus Sullivan's nearly $14 million through October, but Sullivan held more campaign cash, $5.1 million to $3.2 million. Republicans outspent Democrats $42 million to $38 million, showing money is flowing heavily into close races.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Watch the Alaska Senate race, where ranked-choice voting lets voters rank top picks, and where Peltola faces Sullivan and a third candidate also named Dan Sullivan. Confirmed
2. Track campaign cash balances, since Sullivan's $5.1 million versus Peltola's $3.2 million could shape late advertising and voter outreach in the final stretch. Analyst inference
3. Note that a Democratic takeover was seen as unlikely early in the year, so watch whether late polling shifts, which could change expectations for policy and regulation. Proposed

Evidence

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