Kalshi, Coinbase and Payward race for US stock perpetual futures approval

What happened

Kalshi filed with regulators on Friday to offer perpetual futures tied to individual US stocks, competing with Coinbase and Payward for approval. Perpetual futures are contracts without an expiry date that let traders bet on an asset's price, and they are a crypto-native product expanding into traditional equities.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

If approved, these futures could give more investors a new way to bet on stock prices, potentially increasing trading volumes and revenue for the platforms. Traditional exchanges may face more competition, and regulators will need to decide how to oversee these products.

Analyst inference

Perpetual futures are already popular in crypto markets, but this move into US stocks could bridge crypto-style trading with mainstream finance. Approval may pressure traditional brokers to offer similar products or adapt their services, and could influence how regulators approach new derivatives.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Watch whether regulators approve Kalshi's filing, as well as any similar filings from Coinbase and Payward. Their decisions will determine which platform gains a first-mover advantage in this new market. Confirmed
2. Investors should monitor how these perpetual futures are structured, particularly the fees and margin requirements. If they are lower than traditional options or futures, they might attract more retail traders. Proposed
3. Look for reactions from traditional exchanges. If they see this as a threat, they may launch their own versions or push for tighter regulation, affecting competitive dynamics. Analyst inference

Evidence

• en.cryptonomist.ch