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BTC heads into US midterm showdown: Three things to know in Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin stayed above its 100-day moving average on Monday before the US midterm elections, jobs data and earnings from Apple and Palantir. Kalshi traders placed Democrats' chances of winning the House at 93.6%, while October US payrolls were forecast to increase by 65,000.
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What happened
Bitcoin stayed above its 100-day moving average on Monday before the US midterm elections, jobs data and earnings from Apple and Palantir. Kalshi traders placed Democrats’ chances of winning the House at 93.6%, while October US payrolls were forecast to increase by 65,000.
Confirmed
Global impact / market context
The election and economic releases are near-term events that may shift expectations about policy and interest rates, which can influence investor appetite for Bitcoin. A rate hike can make borrowing costlier and reduce cash available for riskier investments, although the article reports no resulting market move.
Analyst inference
The article says Bitcoin fell in the fourth quarter during each of the past three US midterm election years, and that all three periods coincided with bear markets, meaning prolonged price declines. This history provides context, but does not establish that elections caused the falls or predict this year’s performance.
Confirmed
What to watch
- Watch the midterm result and any follow-through on the president’s stated intention to veto legislation if Democrats take control of Congress; the article reports no later policy action. Analyst inference
- Compare October nonfarm payrolls, the monthly count of jobs added outside farming, with the 65,000 forecast and track whether December rate-hike expectations change. Analyst inference
- Check whether Bitcoin remains above its 100-day moving average, a chart line showing the average price over roughly 100 days, as the article notes it did Monday. Analyst inference
Affected assets
- BTC — Bitcoin