LATEST: A new study finds Bitcoin's volatility is now concentrated in US trading hours, with a 9-hour window accounting for ~50% of daily price movement, while it was essentially random in 2016-2018.

What happened

A new study found that Bitcoin's price movement, or volatility, is now concentrated during US trading hours. A 9-hour window accounts for about half of daily price movement, whereas in 2016-2018 it was essentially random throughout the day.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

If Bitcoin's price swings happen mostly during US trading hours, investors elsewhere may face larger price gaps overnight. This could alter when investors trade, and for a company holding Bitcoin, it might change how they manage cash available for daily operations.

Analyst inference

This shift suggests US-based investors now exert more influence on Bitcoin's price. For exchanges and trading platforms, revenue from trading fees could become more concentrated in US times, potentially affecting their cash flow and pricing of services during other hours.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. The study mentions a specific 9-hour window but does not identify the exact hours. Watch for follow-up reports that reveal which precise US trading hours drive the approximately half of daily Bitcoin price movement. Confirmed
2. Track whether this concentration in US hours persists or diminishes over coming months. If it strengthens, US investor influence on Bitcoin's price may be growing, possibly affecting how other regions schedule their asset purchases. Proposed
3. If US trading hours continue to dominate, investors in other time zones might reduce overnight activity. This could lower trading volume outside US hours, potentially impacting exchanges' revenue from transaction fees during those periods. Analyst inference

Affected assets

• BTC — Bitcoin

Evidence

• x.com