Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) reports earnings tomorrow: what to expect

What happened

Merchants Bancorp, a diversified bank holding company, will report earnings tomorrow after the market closes. Last quarter it reported revenues of $182.2 million, up 1.7% year on year, beating analysts' profit-per-share estimates but missing net interest income estimates.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

The market expects revenue to grow 7.5% this quarter, slower than the 14.4% increase a year earlier. Merchants Bancorp has missed Wall Street's revenue estimates several times over the past two years, so another miss could weaken investor confidence in its growth outlook.

Analyst inference

Regional bank peers Byline Bancorp and First Citizens BancShares have already reported results, giving a hint at sector demand. Analysts reconfirmed their estimates over the last 30 days, suggesting they expect the business to stay on course heading into this earnings release.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Watch whether reported revenue reaches the expected 7.5% year-on-year growth and whether profit per share again beats estimates, after last quarter's beat and net interest income miss. Confirmed
2. Analysts should consider whether Merchants Bancorp breaks its pattern of missing revenue estimates, which has repeated multiple times over the last two years and could shape positioning before results. Proposed
3. Compare Merchants Bancorp's growth with Byline Bancorp's 4.6% revenue growth and First Citizens BancShares' flat revenue to judge whether regional bank demand is holding up. Analyst inference

Evidence

• stockstory.org