Easy money on Polymarket and Kalshi is disappearing as prop firms deploy AI agents

What happened

Traders are betting on the Fed’s July 28‑29 rate decision using Polymarket and Kalshi contracts, and prop trading firms have started using AI agents that are cutting the easy profit chances on these platforms.

Analyst inference

Global impact / market context

When AI agents set prices in prediction markets, retail traders lose simple ways to earn money, while larger firms may take more of the trading volume, changing how easily cash moves in and out of these new assets.

Analyst inference

The Federal Reserve will meet on July 28‑29 to decide interest rates, and investors normally try to guess the outcome by looking at bonds, currencies, crypto and contracts that settle based on the Fed’s announcement.

Confirmed

What to watch

1. How fast AI agents can learn pricing mistakes on Polymarket and Kalshi, which may tighten price gaps and lower returns for manual traders. Analyst inference
2. Whether the Fed’s rate decision creates new price differences that AI‑driven prop firms could exploit for profit. Analyst inference
3. Potential regulatory steps aimed at AI use in prediction markets, which could change how these platforms operate and affect retail access. Proposed

Evidence

• cryptoslate.com