Global oil prices haven't even hit $150 a barrel, though analysts had predicted the price of crude oil could rise as high as $200 a barrel when the US and Israel went to war with Iran at the end of February. Energy editor @dmitryZ_reuters explains why

What happened

Global oil prices stayed below $150 a barrel even though analysts had forecast they could climb to $200 a barrel after the United States and Israel went to war with Iran at the end of February.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Higher oil prices would raise costs for consumers and businesses, increase revenue for oil producers, and influence inflation and central‑bank policy, while the gap between forecasts and actual prices highlights market uncertainty.

Analyst inference

The war‑related geopolitical risk raised expectations of supply disruptions, prompting analysts to model a sharp price jump, but actual demand, inventory levels and alternative supply sources kept prices lower than the $200 forecast.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Any further escalation of the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict that could tighten oil supply and push prices higher. Proposed
2. Updates on global oil inventory data that can signal whether supply is tightening or easing. Proposed
3. Policy responses from major economies, such as changes to strategic petroleum reserves, that could influence price stability. Proposed

Evidence

• x.com