SpaceX Could Mirror Nvidia's Revenue Boom, Sequoia Partner Says — Tesla Influencer Runs Hypothetical Merger Math

What happened

Sequoia Capital partner Shaun Maguire projected that SpaceX revenue could rise from $51.5 billion in 2026 to $731.1 billion in 2028, driven mainly by ground-based AI computing. His forecast assumes computing capacity reaches 21 gigawatts by 2028 and includes $369 billion in capital spending that year.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

If realized, the forecast implies a major expansion of SpaceX’s computing business, with projected AI revenue making up most of its 2028 total. The assumed $369 billion in capital spending could require substantial funding before that revenue arrives, making delivery and financing key uncertainties for investors.

Analyst inference

The article presents this as Maguire’s projection, not a reported result or company commitment. It also notes his financial interest in SpaceX. The comparison with Nvidia concerns a possible pace of revenue growth; it does not establish that SpaceX will match Nvidia’s business results.

Confirmed

What to watch

1. Watch for SpaceX disclosures showing whether computing capacity approaches the forecast 21 gigawatts by the end of 2028, since that scale underpins the projected AI revenue. Analyst inference
2. Track whether SpaceX identifies funding and carries out the forecast $369 billion of 2028 capital spending; the article gives the estimate but no confirmed spending plan. Analyst inference
3. Compare reported revenue with Maguire’s projections of $51.5 billion in 2026, $273.8 billion in 2027, and $731.1 billion in 2028. Analyst inference

Evidence

• stocktwits.com