Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc expected to post earnings of 26 cents a share - Earnings Preview

What happened

Blackstone Mortgage Trust is expected to report results on October 29 for the quarter ending September 30, 2026. Analysts expect revenue to fall 22.2% to $76.967 million from $98.9 million a year earlier, and earnings of 26 cents a share.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

A revenue drop of that size suggests the company is earning less from its mortgage lending book, which can pressure the cash available for dividends and for covering funding costs. Investors may question whether payouts stay supported if results miss again.

Analyst inference

Analysts remain positive overall, with five buy ratings and four holds, and a median price target of $16.00, about 50.7% above the last close of $10.62. That gap suggests investors see the shares as cheap relative to analyst views.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. The company missed analyst earnings estimates in six of the last eight quarters, including a reported actual result of -2.07 for the quarter ending December 31, 2025. Watch whether this streak continues. Confirmed
2. Watch whether management proposes a steady dividend or changes to its payout policy when results are released, since weaker revenue could affect the cash available to distribute to shareholders. Proposed
3. Watch the gap between the $16.00 median price target and the $10.62 last close. If results disappoint, analysts may lower targets, which could pressure the share price. Analyst inference

Evidence

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