UAE Non-Oil Private Sector Growth Remains Strong

What happened

The UAE’s non-oil private sector continued to expand in October 2026, although the S&P Global PMI, a survey-based activity indicator, eased to 54.8 from 55.3 in September. New orders grew faster, exports rose at their quickest pace in two years, and rising costs drove output price inflation to a survey record.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Stronger orders and growing work backlogs point to continued demand for non-oil businesses, which can support sales. But record increases in selling prices alongside higher input costs may squeeze profit per sale if companies cannot pass on costs; some firms also cut jobs to contain spending.

Analyst inference

The survey presents a mixed operating picture: demand and business confidence improved, while input costs and selling prices rose sharply and employment slipped fractionally. For investors, this suggests potential revenue support for non-oil firms alongside pressure on costs and staffing, rather than uniformly improving conditions.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Check whether new orders and export demand continue to grow; sustained demand could help businesses keep output rising and clear the growing backlog of unfinished work. Analyst inference
2. Watch whether higher prices for materials, fuel, energy, freight and rents persist, and whether firms can keep passing those costs to customers without weakening demand. Analyst inference
3. Track employment and business confidence in subsequent survey updates: further job cuts could signal stronger cost restraint, while confidence may reflect expectations rather than realized sales. Analyst inference

Evidence

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