Nomura sees Lodha Developers' second-half pre-sales rising 25% to Rs 143 billion, maintains 'Buy'

What happened

Nomura expects Lodha Developers to sell more homes in the second half of FY27, projecting pre-sales of Rs 143 billion, up 25% from a year earlier. Nomura kept a Buy rating and a Rs 1,280 target price after the November 2 earnings call.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Pre-sales mean homes booked before full payment, so rising pre-sales point to more cash coming in from buyers, which funds construction, land purchases and debt repayment. The 25% growth forecast suggests Nomura sees demand holding up despite higher interest rates.

Analyst inference

Lodha reported second-quarter pre-sales of Rs 50.4 billion, up 10% a year earlier, driven mostly by sales of existing stock. Management kept its FY27 guidance of Rs 240 billion and expects the data centre land sale to add cash in the fourth quarter.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Lodha needs Rs 143 billion of pre-sales in the last two quarters of FY27, versus about Rs 115 billion in the same period of FY26, so sales must speed up. Confirmed
2. Management expects Rs 60-70 billion of pre-sales in each of the third and fourth quarters, with about two-thirds from existing inventory rather than new launches. Proposed
3. Watch whether new project launches worth Rs 190 billion and roughly Rs 410 billion of unsold inventory convert into actual bookings, since a slow pace would put the guidance at risk. Analyst inference

Evidence

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