UPS Earnings Are Coming, Giving Investors a Look at 3 Key Things — Barrons.com

What happened

United Parcel Service will report third-quarter numbers on Tuesday morning. Wall Street expects earnings per share of $1.62 from sales of $22.3 billion, against $1.74 and $21.4 billion a year earlier. Sales are expected to rise year over year for the second straight quarter.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

UPS delivered more than five billion packages in 2025, so its results show how much consumers are shipping and buying. Investors also want to know when profit per sale will rise again after UPS dropped low-profit Amazon business, which removed about two million daily packages from its network.

Analyst inference

U.S. diesel is about $6.35 per gallon versus about $3.67 a year ago. Fuel is generally a pass-through for UPS, which means higher diesel costs get passed to customers through surcharges, but prices still add costs and can change shipping patterns and consumer behavior.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Watch how fuel is affecting customer behavior. U.S. diesel is about $6.35 per gallon, up from about $3.67 a year ago, and higher prices add to costs and can change shipping patterns. Confirmed
2. Watch when operating profit margins, which means profit per sale, will turn higher at UPS. Analyst David Vernon of Bernstein calls this timing a core debate for investors after the Amazon glide down. Analyst inference
3. Watch how UPS expects the peak shopping season to unfold, since investors want signs that package volumes and profit growth in 2027 and beyond will no longer be held back. Analyst inference

Evidence

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