Earnings to watch: Marriott Vacations (VAC) reports Q3 results tomorrow

What happened

Marriott Vacations, a vacation ownership company, will report its third-quarter earnings on Wednesday morning. Last quarter it reported revenues of $1.32 billion, up 5.9% year on year, and beat analysts' revenue, earnings-per-share and full-year EBITDA guidance expectations.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

The market expects Marriott Vacations' revenue to grow 11.7% this quarter, reversing last year's 3.2% decline. A miss would extend its pattern of missing Wall Street revenue estimates, while a beat would support the case that the business is improving.

Analyst inference

Analysts have reconfirmed their estimates over the last 30 days, suggesting they expect the business to stay the course. Peer Hilton Grand Vacations reported year-on-year revenue growth of 50.8%, which may shape how investors judge Marriott Vacations' own growth.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Watch whether revenue reaches the 11.7% year-on-year growth the market expects, a reversal from the 3.2% decrease recorded in the same quarter last year. Confirmed
2. Watch whether the company again misses revenue estimates, as it has multiple times over the last two years, which could weigh on investor confidence. Analyst inference
3. Watch how the reported 1.48 million guests, down 2.1% year on year last quarter, trend, since guest counts relate to vacation ownership sales and revenue. Analyst inference

Evidence

• stockstory.org