CBOT soybeans hit 11-week low as US farmers wrap up harvesting

What happened

CBOT soybean futures fell to an 11-week low on Tuesday as US farmers neared the end of harvest; the USDA said harvesting was 88% complete, above the five-year average of 84%. January soybeans ended down 2-3/4 cents at $12.14 per bushel.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

A large, nearly completed US crop can increase available supply and weigh on soybean prices. Lower prices could reduce farmers’ revenue and affect earnings for businesses that sell soybeans, while buyers may benefit from cheaper inputs. Brazil’s pricing advantage also raises questions about US export demand.

Analyst inference

The report described mixed signals for demand: exporters reported sales of 134,000 metric tons to unknown buyers for 2026/27 delivery, following 136,000 metric tons sold to China. But analysts questioned sales to buyers outside China because Brazil had a pricing advantage.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Watch USDA harvest updates and final crop estimates: completion ahead of the five-year average, alongside the agency’s earlier record-crop estimate, could reinforce expectations of abundant US supply. Analyst inference
2. Track whether exporters report further soybean sales to China or other buyers, and whether shipments occur; sustained orders would help support demand for US crops despite Brazil’s price advantage. Analyst inference
3. Watch whether soybean futures remain near the reported 11-week low and whether meal and oil prices follow; continued declines could pressure crop sellers’ revenue and related business earnings. Analyst inference

Evidence

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