Nebius Stocks Plunge 18.84% as $7 Billion Run-Rate Goal Slips to February

What happened

Nebius Group reported third-quarter revenue of $980.8 million, up 571%, and operating income of $50.4 million. It now expects its annualized revenue run rate to exceed $7 billion in February, rather than reaching $7 billion to $9 billion by December.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Nebius is spending heavily to expand while some outside capacity is delayed, making the timing of revenue growth important to its cash needs. If capacity arrives late or targets slip again, costs may come before expected sales, increasing pressure on funding and investor confidence.

Analyst inference

The article reports strong third-quarter revenue growth and positive operating income, but also a much larger capital spending plan and a lower-end 2026 revenue outlook. This contrast suggests investors are weighing growth potential against execution risk and the cash required to build capacity.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Nebius said it expects annualized run-rate revenue to pass $7 billion in February; progress toward that target would indicate whether the revised timing is achievable. Confirmed
2. The company raised planned 2026 capital spending to about $27 billion and expects third-party capacity in the first half of 2027; both plans remain execution milestones. Confirmed
3. Watch whether delayed capacity comes online as planned and supports revenue growth, because further delays could leave Nebius spending heavily before the expected sales arrive. Analyst inference

Evidence

• gurufocus.com