SpaceX Stock Keeps Getting Cheaper. Starship Flight 15 Could Spark a Massive Rally. — Barrons.com

What happened

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas says SpaceX’s 2027 operating profit estimate has risen from $10 billion near its June IPO to about $63 billion, and he now expects positive annual free cash flow in 2031 rather than 2035. The article says Starship’s 15th test flight is expected in November.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Higher profit and cash-flow estimates could support SpaceX’s valuation, but the article says aggressive spending on AI data centers and mobile communications is absorbing cash. A successful Starship booster and upper-stage catch could strengthen expectations for rocket reuse and future business growth.

Analyst inference

The article describes a gap between sharply higher business estimates and a stock price still near its $135 IPO price. That contrast suggests investors have not fully reflected the improved forecasts, while the expected flight offers a possible event to change views.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Whether Flight 15 takes place as expected in November, and whether SpaceX successfully catches both the booster and upper stage using its mechanical arms. Confirmed
2. Whether the flight demonstrates faster rocket reuse; the article says the catch is intended to help rapid reusability, which could affect future launch costs and operations. Analyst inference
3. Whether updated company results support Morgan Stanley’s higher 2027 operating profit estimate and its forecast for positive annual free cash flow in 2031. Analyst inference

Evidence

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