Darkfost Says Long-Term Bitcoin Holder Exchange Inflows Are Cooling

What happened

Crypto analyst Darkfost said long-term Bitcoin holders were most active at the March 2024 market top, when average daily BTC exchange inflows exceeded the annual average by over five times, while activity was calmer at the 2025 top and is now cooling.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Long-term holders moving Bitcoin to exchanges often signals possible selling, because coins can be traded there. If their inflows stay below the annual average, fewer earlier buyers are likely sending coins to sell, which can reduce downward pressure on Bitcoin's price.

Analyst inference

Darkfost said annual average daily BTC exchange inflows rose from about 600 to about 1,000 after the bear market began, with some days far above average alongside realized losses among earlier buyers, meaning those buyers sold at a loss.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Watch whether long-term holder exchange inflows remain well below the annual average, because Darkfost said activity is now gradually cooling and market behavior is changing as conditions become more rational. Confirmed
2. Watch whether daily BTC exchange inflows rise back above the annual average, which would suggest long-term holders are becoming more active and potentially preparing to sell coins. Proposed
3. Watch whether realized losses among earlier buyers at higher prices increase again, because Darkfost linked such losses to trading days when inflows were far above the annual average. Analyst inference

Affected assets

• BTC — Bitcoin

Evidence

• binance.com