Saifedean Ammous: The Bond Crisis & Bitcoin's Rise as a True Macro Asset

What happened

Saifedean Ammous says Bitcoin's volatility is falling, and he calls that the most bullish development for Bitcoin now. Bear-market drawdowns have shrunk from roughly 87% to 77% to about 54% this cycle, moving Bitcoin closer to an investable asset for money managers.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Smaller drawdowns mean investors lose less money in bad markets, so professional money managers may feel safer adding Bitcoin. That could bring more investor dollars into Bitcoin and make its price less driven by speculation and more by steady demand.

Analyst inference

Bitcoin remains a volatile asset, and Ammous ties its four-year cycle to the halving, which means the periodic cut in new Bitcoin creation. He notes fewer people are buying with leverage at the top, which means using borrowed money to bet on price gains.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Whether Bitcoin bear-market drawdowns keep shrinking below the roughly 54% seen this cycle, since smaller drops would support the case that Bitcoin is becoming more investable for money managers. Confirmed
2. Ammous suggests markets may eventually arbitrage these cycles away, which means traders could trade against the pattern until the four-year halving cycle no longer drives Bitcoin's price swings as strongly. Proposed
3. Watch whether fewer leveraged buyers at the top reduces forced selling in downturns, because less borrowed money in the market could mean smaller price crashes and steadier demand from long-term investors. Analyst inference

Affected assets

• BTC — Bitcoin

Evidence

• youtube.com