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'Paid to wait': Bitcoin presses toward $65,000 as Treasuries out-yield the carry trade for only second time on record

Bitcoin rose toward $65,000 on Thursday after softer economic data reduced expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate hike, while spot trading volume stayed near multi‑year lows.

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What happened

Bitcoin rose toward $65,000 on Thursday after softer economic data reduced expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate hike, while spot trading volume stayed near multi‑year lows.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Higher Bitcoin prices can attract more capital to the cryptocurrency market, influencing investor portfolios, and may affect related assets like mining stocks and crypto‑focused funds.

Confirmed

Investors are watching the U.S. Treasury market because its yields have briefly become higher than the return from the Bitcoin carry trade, a rare occurrence that can shift money into Bitcoin.

Confirmed

What to watch

  1. If Treasury yields stay above the Bitcoin carry trade return, more investors may move funds into Bitcoin, potentially pushing prices higher. Analyst inference
  2. Future economic data releases that affect Fed rate expectations could cause Bitcoin’s price to swing sharply in either direction. Analyst inference
  3. Watch for changes in spot Bitcoin trading volume, as rising volume could signal stronger market participation and support for higher prices. Proposed

Affected assets

  • BTC — Bitcoin

Evidence