Bitcoin price analysis sees 'strong rally' as old coins become dormant

What happened

Bitcoin onchain data shows the share of realized cap from coins dormant 18 months or longer slipped from 26.98% to 26.59% since mid-September. CryptoQuant says similar declines in old-coin activity came before past bull markets.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Long-term holders selling less means fewer old coins are moving toward exchanges, which can reduce available supply. If demand stays steady while supply tightens, the price can rise faster, supporting CryptoQuant's view of an early bull market.

Analyst inference

Coins last moved at least five years ago make up about 34,000 BTC in monthly onchain volume, half the 2024 level. This falling activity among long-term holders suggests they are choosing to hold rather than sell into current prices.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. CryptoQuant tracks the 18-month-plus group's share of realized cap, which means the value of coins at the price they last moved, to see whether it keeps declining. Confirmed
2. Watch whether the share of dormant coins continues falling from 26.59%, since CryptoQuant says a sustained decline after a peak has preceded strong rallies. Proposed
3. Monitor monthly onchain volume for coins idle five years or more; further declines toward or below 34,000 BTC would reinforce the case that old supply is staying put. Analyst inference

Affected assets

• BTC — Bitcoin

Evidence

• cointelegraph.com