US stock futures edge up as oil falls heading into earnings barrage

What happened

US stock index futures rose slightly on Monday as crude oil prices fell back from last week's surge. About one-third of S&P 500 companies report earnings this week, including Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon, and the Federal Reserve also decides on interest rates.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Big technology companies are spending heavily on AI, so their results must show whether those outlays turn into revenue and cash available. Meta raised its AI spending forecast again and plans to sell new stock to fund it, which pressures profit and investor patience.

Analyst inference

The AI trade has weakened this month on fears that debt-funded data-center spending, meaning building costs paid with borrowed money, may be unsustainable as borrowing costs rise. Neocloud firms, which rent out AI computing capacity, have been hit hardest, with CoreWeave and Nebius each losing more than 30% of market value.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. This week's earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and other S&P 500 companies, which investors will examine for signs that large AI investments are paying off through revenue, profit per sale and cash flow. Confirmed
2. Watch whether hyperscalers disclose concrete AI revenue and cash flow evidence, since Saxo's strategist argues strong AI demand alone may no longer satisfy markets seeking monetization and margins. Proposed
3. Track CoreWeave, Nebius, IREN and Applied Digital, whose premarket declines of about 3%, 3%, 2.6% and 1.5% signal that debt-fueled data-center spending faces rising borrowing costs and weaker investor positioning. Analyst inference

Evidence

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