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Bitcoin Is Down 50% but Cryptoquant Says the Cycle Top Still Hasn't Happened
Cryptoquant says its 365‑day PnL Index Signal is still moving lower, which the firm interprets as a sign that Bitcoin's price cycle may not have reached its peak yet.
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What happened
Cryptoquant says its 365‑day PnL Index Signal is still moving lower, which the firm interprets as a sign that Bitcoin’s price cycle may not have reached its peak yet.
Confirmed
Global impact / market context
The signal is used by investors to gauge whether the current decline is near its end; if the cycle top is still ahead, traders may keep positions short, affecting Bitcoin’s price trajectory and related assets.
Confirmed
Bitcoin has fallen about 50% from its recent highs, and on‑chain data provider Cryptoquant is tracking its own 365‑day profit‑and‑loss (PnL) index, a metric that looks at long‑term trader performance.
Confirmed
What to watch
- If the PnL Index continues to decline, it could indicate that more traders remain in losing positions, potentially delaying a market bottom and extending the downtrend. Analyst inference
- A reversal of the index to upward momentum would suggest that traders are starting to profit, which may precede a price rally and attract new buying interest. Analyst inference
- Watch for any significant on‑chain activity spikes, such as large address inflows to exchanges, because they often signal upcoming short‑term price moves. Proposed
Affected assets
- BTC — Bitcoin