A $731 Billion Opportunity for SpaceX Stock

What happened

Elon Musk expects computing capacity added in orbit to exceed new installations on Earth by late 2028, potentially widening the next year. Separately, Sequoia partner Shaun Maguire projects SpaceX revenue could rise from $51.5 billion in 2026 to $731 billion in 2028, alongside $369 billion in capital spending that year.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

If orbital computing becomes a priority, SpaceX could direct substantial investment toward infrastructure beyond Earth, while the $731 billion revenue figure depends on a sharp business expansion. Maguire’s projected $369 billion in 2028 capital spending could absorb cash; his model assumes free cash flow, or cash left after spending, turns positive around midyear.

Analyst inference

These are forecasts, not company guidance: Maguire supplied the revenue and spending estimates, while Musk described the possible shift in computing capacity. The article also notes political and supply-chain obstacles and ongoing AI service operating costs, which could limit growth or reduce cash generated.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Whether SpaceX makes concrete plans to add computing capacity in orbit, and whether installations there actually exceed new Earth-based capacity by late 2028. Analyst inference
2. Whether later company disclosures support Maguire’s forecast of $731 billion in 2028 revenue and $369 billion in capital spending; these remain projections, not guidance. Analyst inference
3. Whether political or supply-chain constraints delay expansion, and whether AI service operating costs prevent free cash flow—the cash remaining after spending—from turning positive around midyear. Analyst inference

Evidence

• gurufocus.com