ZAWYA: IMF sees Oman economy growing 4% in 2026

What happened

The International Monetary Fund projects Oman’s economy will grow around 4 per cent in 2026, helped by higher oil production and resilient non-oil activity, though regional conflict is increasing pressure on businesses, investment and the economic outlook.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Faster growth would support government revenue and company profits in Oman, because more oil output and trade raise income. But conflict pressure on businesses and investment could slow capital spending and hiring, limiting how much of the projected growth reaches ordinary companies.

Analyst inference

The IMF expects medium-term growth near 3 per cent, below the 2026 figure, as Oman works toward oil capacity of 1.2 million barrels per day. Tourism, manufacturing and construction face disruption, and higher imported food prices add to inflation, which means higher costs for households and firms.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Watch whether Oman reaches oil capacity of 1.2 million barrels per day, which means the maximum sustained output it can produce, since higher output supports the 4 per cent growth projection. Confirmed
2. Watch whether tourism, manufacturing and construction recover from disruption, because these non-oil industries support jobs, company revenue and the diversification away from oil income. Analyst inference
3. Watch whether economic reforms progress and conflict effects ease, since the IMF ties the favourable outlook to these conditions, which would shape business investment and capital spending decisions. Proposed

Evidence

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