Economists See Lower Recession Risk: Will Fed Still Hike Interest Rates?

What happened

A Wall Street Journal survey of 72 U.S. economists found recession odds fell to 25% while inflation expectations rose, leaving the Federal Reserve with little room to cut rates this year.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Higher inflation expectations mean the Fed is likely to keep interest rates elevated, which removes a key driver for risk‑on assets like cryptocurrencies and could limit their price recovery in the second half of the year.

Analyst inference

Investors had hoped a softer outlook would prompt the Fed to lower rates, supporting equities and digital assets. The new outlook suggests rates stay high, keeping borrowing costs up and pressure on growth‑sensitive markets.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Fed statements on inflation and policy stance in the next two months, which will confirm whether rates stay high or a cut becomes possible. Proposed
2. Crypto market price trends, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, to see if the higher‑for‑longer rate environment dampens buying momentum. Proposed
3. Corporate earnings reports from rate‑sensitive sectors such as technology and real estate, which will show how higher borrowing costs affect revenue and profit margins. Proposed

Evidence

• beincrypto.com