Analyst Darkfost: Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Nears $76,000 as Market Tests Conviction

What happened

Analyst Darkfost said Bitcoin short-term holders' cost basis is now near $76,000 after their profits rose sharply yesterday. The short-term holder MVRV indicator is approaching 1, after rising above 1.18 in late September, its highest since July 2025.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Cost basis is the average price short-term holders paid, so near $76,000 many sit close to break-even. With MVRV near 1, which compares market value to cost basis, some may buy more while others sell at a loss, shaping whether price holds.

Analyst inference

The cost basis climbed from about $67,500 in mid-August as holders bought during Bitcoin's advance. With the medium-term trend turning positive, a return of MVRV to around 1 may become a key price area where short-term holders decide to add or exit.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Watch whether the short-term holder MVRV indicator actually reaches 1, the neutral level Darkfost cites, since that marks where holders' unrealized gains largely disappear. Confirmed
2. Darkfost suggests a return of MVRV to around 1 may be a key price area for short-term holders, so watch whether buying or loss-selling prevails there. Proposed
3. Track whether the cost basis near $76,000 keeps rising as new buyers enter, because a higher basis would move the level where holders' profits and losses flip. Analyst inference

Affected assets

• BTC — Bitcoin

Evidence

• binance.com