CLARITY Act Passage Odds Crash To Just 10% Galaxy Digital now sees only a 10% chance of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026. The firm cited unresolved political disputes and a shrinking Senate timeline. Lawmakers are expected to have only two to three weeks after Sept. 14. Key

What happened

Galaxy Digital now estimates there is only a 10% chance the CLARITY Act will be approved in 2026, citing ongoing political disagreements and a rapidly shrinking Senate schedule that leaves lawmakers just two to three weeks after September 14 to act.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Because the CLARITY Act would set federal rules for digital assets, a low probability of passage reduces regulatory certainty, potentially slowing crypto company investments, limiting capital inflows, and affecting market confidence in related securities overall.

Analyst inference

The broader environment shows a divided Congress and a compressed Senate calendar, with the session ending soon after the September 14 deadline, which limits time for debate and makes it harder for any major crypto legislation to advance.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Watch for any breakthrough in the political dispute between Senate leadership and crypto‑friendly lawmakers, as a settlement could reopen the legislative window before the session closes. Analyst inference
2. Monitor Senate scheduling announcements to see if the two‑to‑three‑week window after September 14 is extended, which would give more time for the CLARITY Act to be debated and potentially passed. Analyst inference
3. Track statements from key committee chairs overseeing digital‑asset policy, as their support or opposition will signal the likelihood of the CLARITY Act moving forward in the limited timeframe. Analyst inference

Evidence

• x.com