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US Institutions Forecast June Core PCE and Second-Quarter GDP
US institutions expect the June core PCE price index to rise in the low‑single‑digit range, with a median forecast slightly lower than before, and they project second‑quarter real GDP growth to be modest, with the median unchanged.
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What happened
US institutions expect the June core PCE price index to rise in the low‑single‑digit range, with a median forecast slightly lower than before, and they project second‑quarter real GDP growth to be modest, with the median unchanged.
Confirmed
Global impact / market context
Core PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, so a lower median hints at cooling price pressures, while modest GDP growth influences expectations for monetary policy and overall market sentiment.
Analyst inference
The forecasts suggest inflation may be easing while growth is modest, which could shape the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates and influence investor expectations for stocks and bonds.
Analyst inference
What to watch
- Upcoming core PCE releases to see if inflation stays near the median forecast, which could affect the Fed’s rate outlook. Proposed
- Revisions to second‑quarter GDP numbers, as higher or lower figures will change the growth outlook and market positioning. Proposed
- Federal Reserve communications on inflation and growth, which will translate these forecasts into policy actions that impact borrowing costs. Proposed